Of the four candidates vying for the NDP leadership, the numbers suggest that only one can hope to win on the first ballot.

Jagmeet Singh’s campaign has claimed credit for enrolling 47,000 of the 124,000 members eligible to vote for the next leader.

If the bulk of them do vote over the next two weeks, all could be in place for a first ballot win Oct. 1.

While that amounts to an organizational challenge, the fact is that it should be logistically easier for Singh to get his vote out than for his rivals.

That’s because his support is more heavily concentrated than that of Charlie Angus, Niki Ashton and Guy Caron.

Connecting with large pockets of members in the GTA and the larger Vancouver area is presumably more straightforward than reaching out to a lot of smaller ones spread out across the country.

It also helps that Singh’s political base — again in contrast with his three rivals — is located in Canada’s most-populated urban area.

Angus holds a northern Ontario riding. Ashton’s seat is in northern Manitoba, and Caron hails from the Lower St. Lawrence region.


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